As the UK recuperates from the recent havoc of Storm Angus, the early September heatwave seems like a relic from another time. Yet, records indicate that this September has been one of the warmest the UK has ever witnessed. The aftermath of this record-breaking warmth seems poised to extend into October, casting aside typical early-autumn expectations.
An Exceptional September
The Central England Temperature (CET) series, which boasts the world's longest continuous record of temperature, has thrown up a startling revelation: September's warmth surpassed that of the traditionally warmer months - June, July, and August.
With an average maximum temperature settling at 22 degrees Celsius, September's warmth not only left behind the recent summer's high but also broke the long-standing record of 20.9C set in 1895. When evaluating the mean temperature, which factors in both maximum and minimum temperatures, the CET series showcased an elevation of nearly four degrees above the average, up to the 26th of September.
This meteorological marvel was majorly attributed to an unprecedented heatwave at the beginning of September. For an entire week, the UK basked in temperatures soaring above 30C.
A Global Phenomenon
This surge in heat isn't exclusive to the UK. Several European countries, including France, Germany, Denmark, and Austria, have registered September 2023 as their warmest. France, for instance, recorded mean temperatures that climbed a degree beyond their previous peak set in 1949.
Beyond Europe, the global temperature trajectory is equally alarming. From June 2023 onwards, global temperatures have escalated, making the subsequent months the hottest ever recorded. Berkeley Earth, a prominent entity that monitors global temperatures, noted in its August assessment that 2023 is on track to be the "warmest year on record".
The El Niño effect, a warming phase of a natural weather cycle in the Pacific, had been forecasted by scientists to elevate global temperatures. Yet, the rapidity and magnitude of this increase have taken even seasoned experts by surprise. Professor Ed Hawkins, from the University of Reading, remarked on the exceptional global temperature trends of 2023, pointing out that the records are being shattered by "shocking" extents.
October: An Encore of Warmth
Despite the calendar shift, the UK is set to experience an extended warmth wave as October commences. Forecasts for Sunday, the 1st of October, predict temperatures in south-east England to peak at an impressive 24C, a deviation of six degrees from the usual readings at this time of the year.
Should the temperatures breach the 23C mark as anticipated, it would register as the toastiest October day in half a decade, and the most sweltering commencement to the month since 2011. This warmth, while predominantly concentrated in the south-east, is expected to elevate temperatures slightly above average in other UK regions at least until the following Monday.
The first week of October was warm
In Conclusion
As September 2023 takes its place in the annals of meteorological history, October seems eager to follow suit. With the global temperature trajectory echoing these anomalies, the year 2023 is shaping up to be a textbook example of the unpredictable impacts of climate change. While warm autumns might be a transient reprieve for some, they underscore the larger and more pressing concern of our planet's changing climate dynamics.
©GlobalCO2.uk
